A simple 2 x 2 for choices
Our life is filled with projects. We invest time, effort or money, and perhaps we get a result.
It’s useful to have a portfolio of projects, because not all of them are going to work.
The 2 x 2 grid looks like this:
Here are some of the traps that are worth avoiding:
1) All your eggs are in a low-chance basket. You’re taking a wild gamble, and it’s your dream. And you want a shortcut. The problem, of course, is that this isn’t a resilient long-term plan. Someone has to win the lottery tomorrow, but alas, that doesn’t mean it’s going to be you.
2) You’re hoping to come out ahead by doing something that depends on scarcity, but you’re doing it in the top right quadrant. The problem is, so is everyone else. All of a sudden, your odds just went down. It’s easy to start an Insta account, but once everyone does it, the chances of becoming a top .01% traffic generating influencer are close to zero.
3) You focus on only high-probability, low-value successes, even if the outcomes are not really worth your time. Getting a $3 an hour gig on a freelance site is easy, but it might not be worth it.
On the other hand, consider a portfolio of projects. Some of them have a very high likelihood of working out, and each one of these outcomes is pleasant, if not game-changing. Play often enough, though, and your persistent generosity will pay off.
And then, mix into that some of the moonshot projects that most people are afraid to take on. They’re afraid because they have equated “low chance of success” with “risky.” They’re not the same. Risky implies that failure will cost a lot. It won’t. You can thrive with this strategy because you have a portfolio, and because you realize that “unlikely” is not the same as “not worth trying.”
The best portfolios are persistent (because patience is a rare skill), they’re generous (so others root for you to succeed) and they build on each other (because then, even the ones that don’t work increase your chances for the next one to work out).
Here’s to a new year filled with possibility.